Will Turkey Occupy Northern Iraq?

Nearly one month ago the RAND Corporation - think tank located in California, U.S.A, published a report on American troops’ withdrawal from Iraq. The report had a striking effect on our media with the title of: U.S. troops’ withdrawal would amalgamate Iraqi Kurds with Turkey…

Someone highlighting this approach mentioned about a federation that includes solution for the Kurdish issue. However, neither has it been discussed nor explained in details after that.

However, this 208-page report prepared by the RAND Corporation, which is the World most important think tank, was so significant that Turkey should have discussed this report outright. It didn’t happen. Contrariwise, the report has been tackled sensationally and some approaches that are not involved in the report have been indicated to the Turkish public opinion.

In order to fix this mistake and introduce the opinion of experts in Turkey about the report Bahcesehir University American Studies Center arranged a meeting.

The importance of the meeting is: The corporate chair in European security at the RAND Corporation, Prof. Stephen Larrabee, who is one of the authors of this report, took part in the meeting. It was interesting as Larrabee had come to Turkey only for one day.

Of course, famous strategy expert Larrabee was not alone. In the meeting there were many important experts such as former Foreign Affairs Minister and retired ambassador Emre Gonensay, again former ambassadors Nuzhet Kandemir and Ozdem Sanberk, former undersecretary of MIT (Turkish National Intelligence Agency) Sonmez Koksal, Prof. Ilter Turan, Prof. Yilmaz Esmer, former brigadier Armagan Kologlu and important journalist Sami Kohen.

Businessman and Chairman of the American Studies Center Advisory Board Zeynel Abidin Erdemmoderated discussion and an opening speech was delivered by American Studies Center President Burak Kuntay.

Contrary to what’s commonly known, Kuntay highlighted the actual and essential topics the report contains:

“First I want to say that this report is not related with Turkey. In the report that consists of 208 pages Turkey related parts take 5 pages. The risks that could occur in the process of withdrawal of U.S. troops in the region have been analyzed.”

Three Suggestions for U.S.

I listened to both Larrabee and Turkish experts. Larrabee said that in the report which was prepared for U.S. government they tackled: situation of countries in the region, such as Syria, Iran and Lebanon; the importance of Turkey and the risks linked with potential progresses. He mentioned his views on Turkey. He also said that he finds the last progresses as very positive.

Larrabee was asked mainly about the possibility of Turkey’s invasion on Iraq, which is tackled in the report. The news about invasion has aroused from this possibility mentioned in the report. However, this situation was tackled in the report with a different foresight.

In the report it is not believed that Turkey would invade Iraq, but the possibility of provoking Turkey is highlighted.

According to the experts, if PKK became very influential in the region and Barzani’s troops made Kirkuk a Kurdish city, Turkey would be provoked and invaded the region with a huge power.

If this situation the report suggests three things to U.S.:

1) Putting pressure on Barzani in order to keep him from entering Kirkuk and make him finish/eliminate PKK terror. By doing it, provoking Turkey is prevented.

2) If it’s not prevented and Turkey tries to invade, U.S. should inform Turkey that if it invades Northern Iraq Turkish-American relations will not be possible.

3) Inform Turkey that EU membership process can be at risk.

Most of the Turkish experts participating in the discussions describe the report as an interesting and meticulous analyze.

Of course, there was also some criticism towards the report. But the U.S. administration has been criticized even more.

Why Bahcesehir University American Studies Center had organized this discussion?

The answer came from Zeynel Abidin Erdem, who said:

“This report is reflected in Turkey in a different way. Rand Cooperation is very important organization and we need to know exactly what they want to tell us. Also, it is such an important issue in Turkey, and we would like to get some ideas about it from experts in diplomatic bureaucracy and military. Our goal is to discuss the Turkish - American relations in an academic way and present it to everyone ...”